VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.20 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY58.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.20 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Aug 05, 03:52 PMAug 05, 03:55 PMAug 05, 03:57 PMAug 05, 04:00 PMAug 05, 04:02 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-05T15:52:46.828Z	31.5%	100.0%	+68.5 pp
2026-08-05T15:58:37.672Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T15:59:09.122Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T16:02:41.237Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 58.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.2%. Marx fair UP is 58.4%.