VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.20 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 58.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.2%. Marx fair UP is 58.4%.