VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.31 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 04, 10:45 PMAug 04, 10:49 PMAug 04, 10:54 PMAug 04, 10:58 PMAug 04, 11:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T22:49:19.979Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:49:32.139Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:49:33.124Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:49:54.826Z | 30.5% | 100.0% | +69.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:50:11.506Z | 30.5% | 100.0% | +69.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:51:28.193Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:52:04.799Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:53:04.462Z | 27.5% | 21.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:53:10.269Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:54:21.204Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:54:29.517Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:55:04.456Z | 35.5% | 100.0% | +64.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:56:04.504Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:56:20.208Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:56:32.486Z | 35.5% | 100.0% | +64.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:56:33.121Z | 35.5% | 100.0% | +64.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:57:04.569Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:58:04.595Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:58:19.722Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:58:30.193Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:59:04.487Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:59:19.539Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:08.387Z | 100.0% | 96.5% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:13.008Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:21.320Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:31.782Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:01:04.509Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:02:04.412Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:02:19.650Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:03:04.457Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.3%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.5%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.