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Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +10.31 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY63.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+10.31 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Aug 02, 04:16 PMAug 02, 04:20 PMAug 02, 04:24 PMAug 02, 04:28 PMAug 02, 04:32 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-02T16:16:46.794Z51.5%92.7%+41.2 pp
2026-08-02T16:17:34.974Z26.5%92.7%+66.2 pp
2026-08-02T16:18:49.002Z40.5%40.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T16:20:09.005Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T16:22:08.471Z26.5%95.0%+68.5 pp
2026-08-02T16:23:38.115Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T16:23:46.734Z35.5%26.5%-9.0 pp
2026-08-02T16:24:08.471Z79.5%79.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T16:26:36.588Z82.5%99.6%+17.1 pp
2026-08-02T16:29:13.880Z35.5%35.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T16:31:12.412Z35.5%100.0%+64.5 pp
2026-08-02T16:31:23.323Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-08-02T16:32:43.556Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 63.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 10.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 14.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.2%. Marx fair UP is 65.5%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +10.31 pp Edge | AntiPredict