VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +10.31 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Aug 02, 04:22 PMAug 02, 04:24 PMAug 02, 04:27 PMAug 02, 04:30 PMAug 02, 04:32 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02T16:22:08.471Z | 26.5% | 95.0% | +68.5 pp |
| 2026-08-02T16:26:36.588Z | 82.5% | 99.6% | +17.1 pp |
| 2026-08-02T16:31:23.323Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T16:32:43.556Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 63.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 10.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 14.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.2%. Marx fair UP is 65.5%.