VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +65.32 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Aug 01, 02:45 PMAug 01, 02:49 PMAug 01, 02:53 PMAug 01, 02:58 PMAug 01, 03:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T14:45:18.370Z | 37.5% | 100.0% | +62.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:46:10.157Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:46:59.350Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:47:21.790Z | 28.5% | 37.5% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:49:07.294Z | 37.5% | 100.0% | +62.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:50:44.757Z | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:52:04.688Z | 37.5% | 28.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:54:37.224Z | 10.5% | 30.5% | +20.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:55:40.232Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:56:43.824Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:56:45.535Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:57:21.186Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:58:21.406Z | 10.5% | 100.0% | +89.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:58:44.219Z | 10.5% | 100.0% | +89.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:59:11.118Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:59:20.449Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T15:00:17.800Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T15:00:36.177Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T15:01:18.261Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T15:02:17.455Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 37.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 32.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 65.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 32.6%, gross edge 68.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 65.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.