Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +65.32 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY37.5%32.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+65.32 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN192.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 01, 02:49 PMAug 01, 02:51 PMAug 01, 02:54 PMAug 01, 02:57 PMAug 01, 03:00 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T14:49:07.294Z37.5%100.0%+62.5 pp
2026-08-01T14:59:11.118Z10.5%10.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T14:59:20.449Z10.5%10.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T15:00:36.177Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 37.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 32.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 65.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 32.6%, gross edge 68.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 65.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.