Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.94 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%82.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+15.94 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN19.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 49.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 01, 02:18 PMAug 01, 02:18 PMAug 01, 02:18 PMAug 01, 02:18 PMAug 01, 02:18 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T14:18:45.388Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 82.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 15.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 82.5%, gross edge 18.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 15.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.94 pp Edge | AntiPredict