VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.94 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 01, 02:16 PMAug 01, 02:20 PMAug 01, 02:25 PMAug 01, 02:30 PMAug 01, 02:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T14:16:22.506Z | 59.5% | 100.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:17:41.974Z | 74.5% | 100.0% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:18:45.388Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:22:33.396Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:22:34.279Z | 49.5% | 74.5% | +25.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:24:20.094Z | 97.0% | 96.2% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:24:30.916Z | 96.2% | 96.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:25:17.917Z | 96.2% | 96.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:25:38.089Z | 97.5% | 96.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:26:49.691Z | 92.5% | 100.0% | +7.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:26:50.366Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:27:36.894Z | 92.5% | 100.0% | +7.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:28:37.625Z | 96.2% | 96.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:29:31.066Z | 96.2% | 96.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:29:34.480Z | 99.8% | 96.2% | -3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:29:49.749Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:30:29.201Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:31:07.730Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:31:24.170Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:32:17.610Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:34:43.810Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 82.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 15.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 82.5%, gross edge 18.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 15.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.