VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +27.98 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY56.5%70.1% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+27.98 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN39.8%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 31, 09:50 PMJul 31, 09:52 PMJul 31, 09:54 PMJul 31, 09:57 PMJul 31, 09:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T21:50:03.878Z	56.5%	0.0%	-56.5 pp
2026-07-31T21:58:51.211Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:59:53.922Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 56.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 70.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 70.1%, gross edge 30.0%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.