VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +27.98 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY56.5%70.1% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+27.98 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN39.8%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 18.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Jul 31, 09:45 PMJul 31, 09:49 PMJul 31, 09:53 PMJul 31, 09:57 PMJul 31, 10:01 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T21:45:57.990Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-31T21:47:13.665Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:47:21.783Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:47:40.718Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:48:41.415Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:50:03.878Z	56.5%	0.0%	-56.5 pp
2026-07-31T21:50:10.198Z	56.5%	0.0%	-56.5 pp
2026-07-31T21:50:44.713Z	56.5%	0.0%	-56.5 pp
2026-07-31T21:52:23.421Z	56.5%	56.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:52:23.636Z	40.5%	56.5%	+16.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:54:01.480Z	27.5%	56.5%	+29.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:55:41.686Z	27.5%	27.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:55:43.070Z	5.5%	27.5%	+22.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:56:48.393Z	5.5%	0.0%	-5.5 pp
2026-07-31T21:56:55.307Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-31T21:57:33.137Z	33.5%	0.0%	-33.5 pp
2026-07-31T21:58:02.089Z	0.5%	18.5%	+18.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:58:27.011Z	18.5%	18.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:58:51.211Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:58:51.287Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T21:59:53.922Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-31T22:00:45.127Z	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T22:00:48.239Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-31T22:01:08.752Z	18.5%	0.0%	-18.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 56.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 70.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 70.1%, gross edge 30.0%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.