VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 50.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Jul 31, 08:00 PMJul 31, 08:00 PMJul 31, 08:00 PMJul 31, 08:00 PMJul 31, 08:00 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T20:00:14.567Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.