VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Jul 31, 08:00 PMJul 31, 08:03 PMJul 31, 08:07 PMJul 31, 08:11 PMJul 31, 08:14 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T20:00:14.567Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-31T20:01:25.643Z	65.5%	65.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T20:01:40.462Z	65.5%	65.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T20:02:40.056Z	65.5%	0.0%	-65.5 pp
2026-07-31T20:03:42.704Z	65.5%	0.0%	-65.5 pp
2026-07-31T20:03:44.288Z	65.5%	0.0%	-65.5 pp
2026-07-31T20:05:20.009Z	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5 pp
2026-07-31T20:07:00.697Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T20:10:01.827Z	58.5%	62.5%	+4.0 pp
2026-07-31T20:11:11.438Z	62.5%	62.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T20:12:17.214Z	58.5%	0.0%	-58.5 pp
2026-07-31T20:12:31.482Z	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5 pp
2026-07-31T20:12:48.752Z	58.5%	58.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T20:13:12.659Z	58.5%	58.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T20:13:49.649Z	58.5%	58.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T20:14:53.287Z	58.5%	0.0%	-58.5 pp
2026-07-31T20:14:54.612Z	99.5%	0.0%	-99.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.