VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 31, 08:45 AMJul 31, 08:49 AMJul 31, 08:53 AMJul 31, 08:58 AMJul 31, 09:02 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T08:45:13.374Z | 51.5% | 0.0% | -51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:45:18.843Z | 67.5% | 0.0% | -67.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:47:36.036Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:47:48.315Z | 67.5% | 51.5% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:48:23.664Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:48:39.335Z | 67.5% | 67.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:48:39.797Z | 82.5% | 67.5% | -15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:49:06.400Z | 82.5% | 82.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:49:47.113Z | 82.5% | 0.0% | -82.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:49:51.631Z | 82.5% | 0.0% | -82.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:50:39.785Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:51:13.485Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:51:53.515Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:54:13.643Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:55:15.366Z | 74.5% | 0.0% | -74.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:55:24.310Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:55:41.415Z | 26.5% | 74.5% | +48.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:56:06.020Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:56:39.602Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:57:41.747Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:58:22.702Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:58:39.609Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T08:59:39.292Z | 0.5% | 26.5% | +26.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:00:00.900Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:00:27.379Z | 26.5% | 0.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:00:43.115Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:00:44.104Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:01:40.313Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:02:27.743Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:02:40.198Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 82.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 30.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 67.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 30.3%, gross edge 70.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 67.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.