VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.76 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY82.5%30.3% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+67.76 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN215.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 31, 08:49 AMJul 31, 08:53 AMJul 31, 08:56 AMJul 31, 08:59 AMJul 31, 09:02 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T08:49:51.631Z	82.5%	0.0%	-82.5 pp
2026-07-31T08:56:06.020Z	26.5%	26.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T08:58:22.702Z	26.5%	0.0%	-26.5 pp
2026-07-31T08:59:39.292Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-31T09:02:27.743Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T09:02:40.198Z	0.0%	0.5%	+0.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 82.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 30.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 67.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 30.3%, gross edge 70.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 67.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.