VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.73 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY43.5%34.2% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+63.73 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN179.6%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 86.5%Marx Fair UP 86.5%

Jul 31, 06:02 AMJul 31, 06:05 AMJul 31, 06:09 AMJul 31, 06:13 AMJul 31, 06:17 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T06:02:04.471Z	43.5%	100.0%	+56.5 pp
2026-07-31T06:05:17.425Z	26.5%	100.0%	+73.5 pp
2026-07-31T06:17:37.405Z	86.5%	86.5%	-0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 43.5%.
The executable UP entry was 34.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 63.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 34.2%, gross edge 66.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 63.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.