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Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.73 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY43.5%34.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+63.73 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN179.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 86.5%Marx Fair UP 86.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 31, 06:01 AMJul 31, 06:05 AMJul 31, 06:09 AMJul 31, 06:13 AMJul 31, 06:17 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T06:01:30.729Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T06:02:04.471Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-07-31T06:02:17.088Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-07-31T06:02:41.032Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T06:03:10.162Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T06:03:39.073Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T06:03:50.728Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T06:05:17.425Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
2026-07-31T06:05:59.884Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
2026-07-31T06:13:53.846Z97.5%26.5%-71.0 pp
2026-07-31T06:13:54.136Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T06:14:09.008Z100.0%26.5%-73.5 pp
2026-07-31T06:16:05.178Z86.5%86.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T06:17:37.405Z86.5%86.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 43.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 34.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 63.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 34.2%, gross edge 66.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 63.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.73 pp Edge | AntiPredict