Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.22 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY94.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+42.22 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 94.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 44.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.2%. Marx fair UP is 94.5%.