Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.22 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY94.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+42.22 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 73.0%Marx Fair UP 78.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 31, 03:30 AMJul 31, 03:34 AMJul 31, 03:38 AMJul 31, 03:43 AMJul 31, 03:47 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T03:30:17.891Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T03:36:32.460Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T03:37:46.088Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T03:38:12.867Z19.5%44.5%+25.0 pp
2026-07-31T03:40:17.759Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T03:41:55.288Z11.5%99.7%+88.2 pp
2026-07-31T03:42:21.380Z73.0%99.7%+26.7 pp
2026-07-31T03:43:37.074Z26.5%99.7%+73.2 pp
2026-07-31T03:43:55.851Z73.0%15.5%-57.5 pp
2026-07-31T03:44:14.201Z10.5%15.5%+5.0 pp
2026-07-31T03:46:03.767Z73.0%78.0%+5.0 pp
2026-07-31T03:47:35.324Z10.5%78.0%+67.5 pp
2026-07-31T03:47:35.484Z73.0%78.0%+5.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 94.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 44.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.2%. Marx fair UP is 94.5%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.22 pp Edge | AntiPredict