Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.70 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%30.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+67.70 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 07:32 PMJul 30, 07:36 PMJul 30, 07:40 PMJul 30, 07:45 PMJul 30, 07:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T19:32:01.306Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:34:11.785Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:45:51.226Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:49:24.277Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 30.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 67.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 30.3%, gross edge 70.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 67.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.