VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.70 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 30, 07:30 PMJul 30, 07:35 PMJul 30, 07:40 PMJul 30, 07:44 PMJul 30, 07:49 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T19:30:48.543Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:31:23.463Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:32:01.306Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:32:22.950Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:33:23.216Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:33:36.637Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:34:11.785Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:34:28.914Z | 31.5% | 100.0% | +68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:35:27.609Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:35:54.348Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:37:31.476Z | 15.5% | 100.0% | +84.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:38:20.402Z | 18.5% | 100.0% | +81.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:38:26.868Z | 19.5% | 100.0% | +80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:39:24.426Z | 17.5% | 19.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:39:39.310Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:39:56.087Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:40:27.490Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:40:53.588Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:41:36.361Z | 15.5% | 100.0% | +84.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:41:58.126Z | 41.5% | 100.0% | +58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:42:23.965Z | 15.5% | 100.0% | +84.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:42:55.019Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:43:29.541Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:44:29.635Z | 15.5% | 100.0% | +84.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:44:30.814Z | 15.5% | 100.0% | +84.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:45:22.813Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:45:51.226Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:46:22.917Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:47:24.993Z | 1.5% | 0.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:49:24.277Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 30.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 67.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 30.3%, gross edge 70.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 67.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.