VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +16.47 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY64.5%82.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+16.47 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN17.9%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 30, 04:49 PMJul 30, 04:52 PMJul 30, 04:56 PMJul 30, 04:59 PMJul 30, 05:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T16:49:04.101Z	64.5%	100.0%	+35.5 pp
2026-07-30T16:59:22.905Z	98.5%	100.0%	+1.5 pp
2026-07-30T16:59:55.903Z	98.5%	100.0%	+1.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:02:02.282Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T17:03:22.586Z	100.0%	99.5%	-0.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 64.5%.
The executable UP entry was 82.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.5 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 82.0%, gross edge 18.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.5%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.