VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +16.47 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 30, 04:47 PMJul 30, 04:51 PMJul 30, 04:55 PMJul 30, 04:59 PMJul 30, 05:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T16:47:22.632Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:47:34.829Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:48:22.710Z | 64.5% | 63.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:48:24.775Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:48:35.239Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:49:04.101Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:49:29.072Z | 64.5% | 100.0% | +35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:51:27.849Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:52:29.034Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:52:42.278Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:53:23.603Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:54:22.871Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:55:00.644Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:55:25.052Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:56:22.795Z | 98.5% | 78.5% | -20.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:56:32.413Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:57:04.966Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:57:23.805Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:57:56.608Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:58:22.720Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:59:22.905Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:59:40.538Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:59:55.903Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:00:22.851Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:01:22.643Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:02:02.282Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:02:22.886Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:03:22.586Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 64.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 82.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 82.0%, gross edge 18.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.5%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.