Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.01 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY66.5%52.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.01 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 12:32 PMJul 30, 12:36 PMJul 30, 12:40 PMJul 30, 12:43 PMJul 30, 12:47 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T12:32:33.104Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-30T12:40:40.813Z66.5%100.0%+33.5 pp
2026-07-30T12:47:42.599Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 66.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 52.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.7%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.