VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.01 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 30, 12:31 PMJul 30, 12:35 PMJul 30, 12:40 PMJul 30, 12:44 PMJul 30, 12:48 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T12:31:20.292Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:32:33.104Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:34:14.027Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:35:06.889Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:36:46.460Z | 66.5% | 100.0% | +33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:37:17.422Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:37:42.078Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:38:07.750Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:39:05.297Z | 66.5% | 57.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:40:07.223Z | 66.5% | 57.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:40:19.449Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:40:40.813Z | 66.5% | 100.0% | +33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:41:04.772Z | 66.5% | 100.0% | +33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:42:00.327Z | 51.5% | 66.5% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:42:15.784Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:42:34.551Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:43:04.513Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:43:39.627Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:43:59.489Z | 10.5% | 100.0% | +89.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:44:58.111Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:45:10.807Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:45:57.119Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:46:25.000Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:46:59.460Z | 0.5% | 15.5% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:47:26.762Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:47:42.599Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:47:59.865Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:48:59.422Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 66.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.7%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.