VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.95 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.95 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Jul 31, 01:59 AMJul 31, 02:00 AMJul 31, 02:02 AMJul 31, 02:03 AMJul 31, 02:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T01:59:24.615Z	0.1%	100.0%	+99.9 pp
2026-07-31T01:59:27.509Z	0.1%	100.0%	+99.9 pp
2026-07-31T02:04:43.396Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 59.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.0%. Marx fair UP is 59.2%.