Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.29 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY41.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.29 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 09:46 PMJul 30, 09:50 PMJul 30, 09:54 PMJul 30, 09:57 PMJul 30, 10:01 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T21:46:55.591Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:49:01.795Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:59:24.159Z12.5%100.0%+87.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:59:57.516Z12.5%100.0%+87.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:01:37.399Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 41.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 8.3%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.3%. Marx fair UP is 41.7%.