VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.29 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 41.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 8.3%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.3%. Marx fair UP is 41.7%.