VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.34 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 30, 01:15 AMJul 30, 01:20 AMJul 30, 01:24 AMJul 30, 01:28 AMJul 30, 01:32 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T01:15:57.767Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:17:16.103Z | 50.5% | 1.7% | -48.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:18:27.610Z | 57.5% | 50.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:18:53.997Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:19:13.762Z | 57.5% | 1.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:21:46.955Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:22:24.629Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:22:25.265Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:22:42.833Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:23:29.605Z | 83.5% | 3.0% | -80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:23:44.302Z | 83.5% | 3.0% | -80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:24:43.317Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:25:11.932Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:25:44.730Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:26:32.413Z | 83.5% | 6.9% | -76.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:26:42.805Z | 98.9% | 6.9% | -91.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:27:42.510Z | 98.9% | 98.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:28:01.960Z | 98.9% | 98.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:28:42.741Z | 98.9% | 98.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:29:30.062Z | 98.9% | 1.4% | -97.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:29:30.933Z | 98.9% | 1.4% | -97.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:29:45.309Z | 98.9% | 1.4% | -97.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:30:47.489Z | 98.9% | 98.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:30:53.613Z | 98.9% | 98.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:31:44.675Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:32:32.794Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 60.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 9.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.3%. Marx fair UP is 60.6%.