VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.34 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY60.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+7.34 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-9.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 30, 01:17 AMJul 30, 01:21 AMJul 30, 01:24 AMJul 30, 01:28 AMJul 30, 01:32 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T01:17:16.103Z	50.5%	1.7%	-48.8 pp
2026-07-30T01:19:13.762Z	57.5%	1.0%	-56.5 pp
2026-07-30T01:23:29.605Z	83.5%	3.0%	-80.5 pp
2026-07-30T01:32:32.794Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 60.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.3 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 9.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.3%. Marx fair UP is 60.6%.