VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.78 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 4.5%Marx Fair UP 4.5%
Jul 30, 12:45 AMJul 30, 12:50 AMJul 30, 12:54 AMJul 30, 12:59 AMJul 30, 01:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T00:51:16.689Z | 50.5% | 2.6% | -47.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:51:46.079Z | 60.5% | 2.6% | -57.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:51:46.315Z | 50.5% | 2.6% | -47.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:52:27.066Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:52:46.958Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:53:45.091Z | 44.5% | 58.5% | +14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:53:53.825Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:54:06.377Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:54:29.009Z | 44.5% | 0.1% | -44.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:54:44.442Z | 44.5% | 0.1% | -44.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:55:42.782Z | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:55:57.353Z | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:56:42.815Z | 5.5% | 46.5% | +41.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:56:46.699Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:56:57.168Z | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:57:06.511Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:57:22.258Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:57:45.253Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:58:44.758Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:59:07.852Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:59:25.392Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:59:26.322Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:59:47.955Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:00:43.667Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:00:47.340Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:01:09.273Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:01:18.106Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:01:43.129Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:02:45.565Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:04:21.731Z | 4.5% | 4.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 60.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 11.2%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.3%. Marx fair UP is 61.2%.