Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.78 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY60.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+7.78 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-9.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 4.5%Marx Fair UP 4.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 30, 12:45 AMJul 30, 12:50 AMJul 30, 12:54 AMJul 30, 12:59 AMJul 30, 01:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T00:45:37.412Z49.5%2.3%-47.2 pp
2026-07-30T00:48:12.846Z64.5%1.2%-63.3 pp
2026-07-30T00:51:46.315Z50.5%2.6%-47.9 pp
2026-07-30T00:54:29.009Z44.5%0.1%-44.4 pp
2026-07-30T00:59:26.322Z5.5%0.0%-5.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:59:47.955Z5.5%0.0%-5.5 pp
2026-07-30T01:04:21.731Z4.5%4.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 60.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 11.2%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.3%. Marx fair UP is 61.2%.