Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +13.77 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY67.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+13.77 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-9.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 07:47 PMJul 30, 07:51 PMJul 30, 07:55 PMJul 30, 08:00 PMJul 30, 08:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T19:47:08.801Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:50:36.770Z14.5%100.0%+85.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:54:28.699Z65.5%100.0%+34.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:59:23.941Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:59:42.010Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:02:03.679Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:04:37.671Z0.0%0.1%+0.1 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 67.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 13.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 16.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 13.8%. Marx fair UP is 67.0%.