VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.92 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY39.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+7.92 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Jul 30, 06:49 PMJul 30, 06:52 PMJul 30, 06:56 PMJul 30, 07:00 PMJul 30, 07:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T18:49:04.725Z	50.5%	99.6%	+49.1 pp
2026-07-30T18:58:23.808Z	0.1%	100.0%	+99.9 pp
2026-07-30T18:58:58.326Z	2.5%	100.0%	+97.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:04:11.292Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 39.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.9 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 10.9%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.9%. Marx fair UP is 39.1%.