VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.05 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY42.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.05 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 30, 05:46 PMJul 30, 05:50 PMJul 30, 05:53 PMJul 30, 05:56 PMJul 30, 05:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T17:46:58.958Z	45.5%	100.0%	+54.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:49:11.686Z	45.5%	100.0%	+54.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:58:58.293Z	4.5%	100.0%	+95.5 pp
2026-07-30T17:59:24.381Z	0.1%	100.0%	+99.9 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 42.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 8.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.0%. Marx fair UP is 42.0%.