VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.45 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.1%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 04:15 PMJul 29, 04:20 PMJul 29, 04:25 PMJul 29, 04:29 PMJul 29, 04:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T16:18:49.905Z | 50.5% | 65.5% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:18:55.257Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:19:12.864Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:19:51.452Z | 50.5% | 97.3% | +46.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:19:51.554Z | 57.5% | 97.3% | +39.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:21:33.522Z | 45.5% | 71.5% | +26.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:21:55.657Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:22:06.322Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:22:44.718Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:23:41.885Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:24:32.097Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:24:47.257Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:25:43.262Z | 96.5% | 96.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:25:58.599Z | 96.5% | 96.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:26:41.949Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:27:22.001Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:27:43.258Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:28:45.393Z | 96.5% | 95.3% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:28:51.095Z | 95.3% | 95.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:29:00.215Z | 96.5% | 96.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:29:18.688Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:29:43.212Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:30:43.281Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:30:58.759Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:31:20.627Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:31:42.116Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:32:41.921Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:32:51.038Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:33:54.264Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T16:34:42.665Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 84.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 32.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.4%. Marx fair UP is 84.7%.