Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.45 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY84.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+30.45 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN85.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 65.5%Marx Fair UP 97.9%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 04:15 PMJul 29, 04:15 PMJul 29, 04:16 PMJul 29, 04:16 PMJul 29, 04:17 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T16:15:18.216Z51.5%96.7%+45.2 pp
2026-07-29T16:17:18.020Z65.5%97.9%+32.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 84.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 32.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.4%. Marx fair UP is 84.7%.