Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.33 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY41.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.33 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 02:24 PMJul 30, 02:26 PMJul 30, 02:28 PMJul 30, 02:29 PMJul 30, 02:31 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T14:24:54.808Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-30T14:27:39.181Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-30T14:31:16.180Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 41.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.3%. Marx fair UP is 41.4%.