VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.80 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.80 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-9.9%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 28.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 30, 12:15 PMJul 30, 12:18 PMJul 30, 12:21 PMJul 30, 12:23 PMJul 30, 12:26 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T12:15:39.224Z	48.5%	100.0%	+51.5 pp
2026-07-30T12:18:52.664Z	42.5%	100.0%	+57.5 pp
2026-07-30T12:26:32.510Z	28.5%	100.0%	+71.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 59.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 10.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.8%. Marx fair UP is 61.0%.