Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.76 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%46.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+51.76 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN105.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 09:45 AMJul 29, 09:49 AMJul 29, 09:54 AMJul 29, 09:58 AMJul 29, 10:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T09:45:13.657Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T09:47:15.395Z45.5%100.0%+54.5 pp
2026-07-29T09:49:19.483Z19.5%100.0%+80.5 pp
2026-07-29T09:51:15.582Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-07-29T09:53:08.786Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-07-29T09:55:14.169Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-07-29T09:59:12.115Z99.9%100.0%+0.1 pp
2026-07-29T09:59:41.732Z99.9%100.0%+0.1 pp
2026-07-29T10:03:07.562Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 46.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 46.0%, gross edge 54.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.