VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +51.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 09:45 AMJul 29, 09:49 AMJul 29, 09:54 AMJul 29, 09:58 AMJul 29, 10:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T09:48:55.189Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:49:19.483Z | 19.5% | 100.0% | +80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:49:41.770Z | 25.5% | 100.0% | +74.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:50:43.695Z | 21.5% | 22.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:50:59.776Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:51:06.864Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:51:15.582Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:51:47.454Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:52:41.793Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:52:56.358Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:53:08.786Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:53:41.712Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:54:41.718Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:54:51.481Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:55:14.169Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:55:41.734Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:56:10.527Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:56:42.028Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:56:51.343Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:57:13.333Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:57:41.716Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:58:41.765Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:58:59.732Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:59:12.115Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:59:41.732Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:00:41.747Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:01:00.003Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:01:11.797Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:01:43.962Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T10:03:07.562Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 46.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 46.0%, gross edge 54.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.