VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 09:31 AMJul 29, 09:35 AMJul 29, 09:39 AMJul 29, 09:43 AMJul 29, 09:47 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T09:31:44.277Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:32:41.788Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:32:56.622Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:33:10.256Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:33:49.549Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:35:19.080Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:35:44.106Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:36:41.590Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:36:56.198Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:37:15.066Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:37:15.548Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:37:42.338Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:38:41.784Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:38:52.466Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:39:11.536Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:39:41.990Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:40:41.551Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:40:48.388Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:41:01.832Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:41:10.630Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:41:41.793Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:42:42.392Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:42:55.821Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:43:08.677Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:43:41.822Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:44:41.607Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:44:50.531Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:45:13.593Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:45:41.643Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:47:11.034Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.