Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN88.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 09:31 AMJul 29, 09:35 AMJul 29, 09:39 AMJul 29, 09:43 AMJul 29, 09:47 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T09:31:10.969Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T09:33:10.256Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-07-29T09:47:11.034Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.