Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%48.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+49.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN101.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 07:17 AMJul 29, 07:20 AMJul 29, 07:24 AMJul 29, 07:27 AMJul 29, 07:30 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T07:17:10.630Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:19:07.776Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:21:09.467Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:23:10.728Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:27:05.962Z33.5%100.0%+66.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:30:56.488Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 47.0%, gross edge 53.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 50.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.