VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 29, 07:15 AMJul 29, 07:20 AMJul 29, 07:25 AMJul 29, 07:29 AMJul 29, 07:34 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T07:18:49.419Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:19:07.776Z | 46.5% | 100.0% | +53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:19:39.277Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:20:41.013Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:20:45.350Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:21:09.467Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:21:42.469Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:22:43.429Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:22:49.365Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:23:10.728Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:23:39.720Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:24:39.361Z | 33.5% | 34.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:24:44.673Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:24:48.961Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:25:12.288Z | 33.5% | 100.0% | +66.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:25:43.417Z | 33.5% | 100.0% | +66.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:26:42.979Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:26:50.226Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:27:05.962Z | 33.5% | 100.0% | +66.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:27:50.496Z | 33.5% | 100.0% | +66.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:28:45.551Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:29:39.843Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:29:50.022Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:30:43.773Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:30:47.995Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:30:56.488Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:31:39.300Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:32:44.123Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:33:40.671Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:34:40.358Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 47.0%, gross edge 53.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 50.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.