Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.82 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY10.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+36.82 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN90.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%13%25%38%50%
Jul 28, 10:31 PMJul 28, 10:35 PMJul 28, 10:39 PMJul 28, 10:43 PMJul 28, 10:47 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T22:31:23.866Z32.5%0.2%-32.3 pp
2026-07-28T22:41:24.576Z14.5%0.0%-14.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:47:25.929Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 10.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 36.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 40.2%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 37.8%. Marx fair UP is 8.8%.