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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.82 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY10.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+36.82 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN90.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 10:30 PMJul 28, 10:34 PMJul 28, 10:39 PMJul 28, 10:43 PMJul 28, 10:47 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T22:30:42.597Z32.5%0.2%-32.3 pp
2026-07-28T22:31:23.866Z32.5%0.2%-32.3 pp
2026-07-28T22:31:41.144Z32.5%0.2%-32.3 pp
2026-07-28T22:32:43.298Z21.5%0.2%-21.3 pp
2026-07-28T22:33:42.084Z21.5%0.2%-21.3 pp
2026-07-28T22:34:41.185Z21.5%0.2%-21.3 pp
2026-07-28T22:35:41.855Z34.5%0.2%-34.3 pp
2026-07-28T22:36:40.869Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:37:47.262Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:38:41.430Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:39:41.899Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:40:41.166Z14.5%0.0%-14.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:41:24.576Z14.5%0.0%-14.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:41:39.003Z14.5%0.0%-14.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:42:46.771Z14.5%0.0%-14.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:43:59.763Z2.5%0.0%-2.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:44:07.682Z2.5%0.0%-2.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:44:40.821Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:45:41.740Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:47:25.929Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 10.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 36.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 40.2%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 37.8%. Marx fair UP is 8.8%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.82 pp Edge | AntiPredict