Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +79.42 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%19.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+79.42 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN398.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 07:30 PMJul 28, 07:35 PMJul 28, 07:39 PMJul 28, 07:43 PMJul 28, 07:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T19:30:54.276Z73.5%0.0%-73.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:31:25.978Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:32:42.337Z77.5%0.0%-77.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:33:41.359Z79.5%0.0%-79.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:34:42.048Z79.5%0.0%-79.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:35:40.417Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:36:40.529Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:37:45.707Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:38:42.827Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:39:40.975Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:40:39.781Z53.5%0.0%-53.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:41:38.590Z53.5%0.0%-53.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:42:46.615Z53.5%0.0%-53.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:43:42.778Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:44:25.813Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:44:41.585Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:45:40.762Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:48:14.179Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 19.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 79.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 19.0%, gross edge 81.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 79.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +79.42 pp Edge | AntiPredict