VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +79.42 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%19.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+79.42 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN398.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 07:31 PMJul 28, 07:35 PMJul 28, 07:39 PMJul 28, 07:44 PMJul 28, 07:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T19:31:25.978Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:48:14.179Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 19.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 79.4 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 19.0%, gross edge 81.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 79.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.