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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.04 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.04 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN90.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 1.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 01:30 PMJul 28, 01:34 PMJul 28, 01:39 PMJul 28, 01:44 PMJul 28, 01:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T13:33:31.144Z38.5%70.5%+32.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:33:35.335Z70.5%70.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:33:58.151Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:34:30.852Z37.5%0.0%-37.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:35:31.047Z62.5%37.5%-25.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:35:34.766Z37.5%37.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:35:44.912Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:36:02.633Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:36:03.015Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:36:31.034Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:37:38.086Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:37:41.544Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:38:03.161Z26.5%0.0%-26.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:38:42.005Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:39:52.150Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:40:17.301Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:40:31.036Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:41:20.475Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:41:32.478Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:42:32.401Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:43:31.356Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:44:35.656Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:45:05.255Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:45:32.973Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:46:30.961Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:46:57.301Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:47:34.807Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:48:30.880Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:48:59.597Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:49:30.955Z0.0%1.5%+1.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.04 pp Edge | AntiPredict