VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.04 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.04 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN90.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 1.5%

Jul 28, 01:31 PMJul 28, 01:36 PMJul 28, 01:40 PMJul 28, 01:45 PMJul 28, 01:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T13:31:57.571Z	70.5%	0.0%	-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:33:58.151Z	70.5%	0.0%	-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:36:03.015Z	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:38:03.161Z	26.5%	0.0%	-26.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:48:59.597Z	1.5%	1.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:49:30.955Z	0.0%	1.5%	+1.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.