VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.73 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.73 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN85.5%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.7%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Jul 28, 05:30 PMJul 28, 05:35 PMJul 28, 05:39 PMJul 28, 05:44 PMJul 28, 05:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T17:30:25.240Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:30:37.912Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:31:15.585Z	35.5%	0.0%	-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:32:15.801Z	35.5%	0.0%	-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:33:15.880Z	35.5%	0.0%	-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:34:15.624Z	35.5%	0.0%	-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:35:15.787Z	17.5%	0.0%	-17.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:36:15.759Z	17.5%	0.0%	-17.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:37:16.079Z	17.5%	0.0%	-17.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:38:16.080Z	17.5%	0.0%	-17.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:39:15.746Z	17.5%	0.0%	-17.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:40:16.397Z	0.9%	0.0%	-0.8 pp
2026-07-28T17:40:37.183Z	0.9%	0.0%	-0.8 pp
2026-07-28T17:41:15.775Z	0.9%	0.0%	-0.8 pp
2026-07-28T17:42:15.628Z	0.9%	0.0%	-0.8 pp
2026-07-28T17:43:15.888Z	0.9%	0.0%	-0.8 pp
2026-07-28T17:44:21.485Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:45:16.590Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:46:16.309Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:47:18.587Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:47:40.755Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:48:16.111Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:49:16.300Z	0.7%	0.1%	-0.6 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.