VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.73 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.73 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN85.5%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Jul 28, 05:30 PMJul 28, 05:34 PMJul 28, 05:39 PMJul 28, 05:43 PMJul 28, 05:47 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T17:30:37.912Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:47:40.755Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.