VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.76 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.5%54.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+43.76 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN75.6%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 1.5%Marx Fair UP 1.4%

Jul 28, 07:01 AMJul 28, 07:06 AMJul 28, 07:10 AMJul 28, 07:15 AMJul 28, 07:19 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T07:01:51.914Z	49.5%	0.0%	-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:03:50.313Z	31.5%	0.0%	-31.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:05:49.882Z	28.5%	0.0%	-28.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:07:52.516Z	28.5%	0.0%	-28.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:19:48.545Z	1.5%	1.4%	-0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 54.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.0%, gross edge 46.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.