VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 1.5%Marx Fair UP 1.4%
Jul 28, 07:01 AMJul 28, 07:06 AMJul 28, 07:10 AMJul 28, 07:15 AMJul 28, 07:19 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T07:05:39.355Z | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:05:49.882Z | 28.5% | 0.0% | -28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:06:30.909Z | 28.5% | 0.0% | -28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:07:33.666Z | 28.5% | 44.5% | +16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:07:34.845Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:07:39.586Z | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:07:51.856Z | 28.5% | 0.0% | -28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:07:52.516Z | 28.5% | 0.0% | -28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:08:45.169Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:08:50.952Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:09:30.815Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:09:34.780Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:10:04.635Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:10:32.033Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:11:30.903Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:12:30.981Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:13:30.895Z | 0.1% | 7.5% | +7.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:13:34.247Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:13:50.506Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:13:59.618Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:14:30.807Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:15:30.973Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:15:39.451Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:15:51.327Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:16:30.881Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:17:30.844Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:17:34.441Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:18:32.041Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:19:30.816Z | 1.5% | 1.4% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:19:48.545Z | 1.5% | 1.4% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 54.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.0%, gross edge 46.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.