VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +35.85 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY39.5%62.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+35.85 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN57.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 5.0%

Jul 28, 02:16 AMJul 28, 02:20 AMJul 28, 02:24 AMJul 28, 02:29 AMJul 28, 02:33 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T02:16:01.319Z	39.5%	0.0%	-39.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:17:56.048Z	39.5%	0.0%	-39.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:20:14.480Z	39.5%	0.0%	-39.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:24:11.569Z	71.5%	0.0%	-71.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:33:56.227Z	0.1%	5.0%	+5.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 39.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 62.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 35.9 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 62.0%, gross edge 38.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 35.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.