VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +35.85 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 5.0%
Jul 28, 02:15 AMJul 28, 02:20 AMJul 28, 02:24 AMJul 28, 02:29 AMJul 28, 02:33 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T02:18:31.994Z | 39.5% | 0.0% | -39.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:19:30.758Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:19:34.612Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:20:14.480Z | 39.5% | 0.0% | -39.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:20:30.990Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:21:30.780Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:21:39.292Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:22:11.502Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:22:33.711Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:23:41.188Z | 71.5% | 60.5% | -11.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:23:44.878Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:23:50.238Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:24:11.569Z | 71.5% | 0.0% | -71.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:24:31.082Z | 71.5% | 0.0% | -71.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:25:30.831Z | 62.5% | 68.5% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:25:40.529Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:25:56.409Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:26:30.780Z | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:27:30.911Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:27:39.476Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:27:55.918Z | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:28:30.861Z | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:29:30.914Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:29:39.616Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:29:55.712Z | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:30:32.426Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:30:38.382Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:31:31.276Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:31:34.937Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:33:56.227Z | 0.1% | 5.0% | +5.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 39.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 62.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 35.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 62.0%, gross edge 38.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 35.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.