VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.09 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 12:45 AMJul 28, 12:49 AMJul 28, 12:53 AMJul 28, 12:57 AMJul 28, 01:01 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T00:47:39.540Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:47:52.041Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:48:30.738Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:49:30.866Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:49:39.587Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:49:50.247Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:50:30.751Z | 22.5% | 0.0% | -22.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:51:30.734Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:51:34.705Z | 22.5% | 22.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:51:50.119Z | 22.5% | 0.0% | -22.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:52:52.282Z | 22.5% | 17.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:53:32.644Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:53:41.020Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:53:50.382Z | 17.5% | 0.0% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:54:32.297Z | 17.5% | 0.0% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:55:30.767Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:55:34.590Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:55:52.009Z | 17.5% | 0.0% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:56:30.844Z | 17.5% | 0.0% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:57:32.582Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:57:39.906Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:57:51.005Z | 17.5% | 0.0% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:58:30.824Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:58:44.937Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:59:30.845Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:59:39.203Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:59:49.908Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:00:30.931Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:01:30.845Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:01:34.569Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.