Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN89.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 12:01 AMJul 28, 12:05 AMJul 28, 12:09 AMJul 28, 12:13 AMJul 28, 12:17 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T00:01:50.156Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:03:50.999Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:09:52.998Z7.5%0.0%-7.5 pp
2026-07-28T00:17:45.095Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.3%, gross edge 51.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.