VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 28, 12:01 AMJul 28, 12:06 AMJul 28, 12:10 AMJul 28, 12:15 AMJul 28, 12:19 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T00:07:34.568Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:07:47.340Z | 10.5% | 0.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:07:51.086Z | 41.5% | 0.0% | -41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:07:58.531Z | 10.5% | 0.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:08:32.814Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:08:38.426Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:09:30.872Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:09:39.459Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:09:52.998Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:10:32.346Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:11:30.882Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:11:39.862Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:11:51.294Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:11:51.829Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:12:34.330Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:12:35.107Z | 20.5% | 0.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:12:39.357Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:13:30.802Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:13:34.683Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:13:49.608Z | 7.5% | 0.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:14:30.781Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:14:34.431Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:15:31.130Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:15:35.298Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:15:51.802Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:16:30.788Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:17:34.119Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:17:45.095Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:18:30.809Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:19:30.860Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.3%, gross edge 51.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.