VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.77 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 27, 09:45 PMJul 27, 09:50 PMJul 27, 09:55 PMJul 27, 09:59 PMJul 27, 10:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T21:50:30.785Z | 42.5% | 56.5% | +14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:50:34.006Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:50:38.759Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:51:00.179Z | 42.5% | 0.1% | -42.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:51:30.756Z | 56.5% | 0.1% | -56.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:52:33.520Z | 73.5% | 43.5% | -30.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:52:34.317Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:52:39.274Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:52:56.254Z | 73.5% | 0.1% | -73.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:53:38.042Z | 49.5% | 0.1% | -49.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:54:30.761Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:54:33.455Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:55:04.443Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:55:30.880Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:56:30.739Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:56:44.157Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:56:54.226Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:57:30.794Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:58:30.734Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:58:39.055Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:58:59.138Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:59:30.798Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T22:00:30.739Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T22:00:40.149Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T22:01:02.747Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T22:01:30.814Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T22:02:30.881Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T22:02:34.380Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T22:03:30.712Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T22:04:30.768Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 10.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 36.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.8%. Marx fair UP is 10.0%.