VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.77 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY10.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+36.77 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN89.6%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 59.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Jul 27, 09:46 PMJul 27, 09:50 PMJul 27, 09:53 PMJul 27, 09:56 PMJul 27, 09:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-27T21:46:58.762Z	48.5%	0.3%	-48.2 pp
2026-07-27T21:48:59.628Z	48.5%	0.2%	-48.3 pp
2026-07-27T21:51:00.179Z	42.5%	0.1%	-42.4 pp
2026-07-27T21:55:04.443Z	49.5%	0.0%	-49.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:56:54.226Z	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:58:39.055Z	59.5%	59.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:58:59.138Z	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:59:30.798Z	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 10.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 36.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.8%. Marx fair UP is 10.0%.