Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.73 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY96.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+42.73 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 13.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 27, 09:01 PMJul 27, 09:03 PMJul 27, 09:06 PMJul 27, 09:09 PMJul 27, 09:12 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-27T21:01:00.443Z35.5%99.5%+64.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:02:55.684Z35.5%99.5%+64.0 pp
2026-07-27T21:04:59.034Z14.5%99.8%+85.3 pp
2026-07-27T21:08:55.834Z16.5%100.0%+83.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:11:02.077Z13.5%100.0%+86.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:12:56.377Z13.5%100.0%+86.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 96.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.1%. Marx fair UP is 99.4%.