VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.73 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 27, 09:00 PMJul 27, 09:04 PMJul 27, 09:08 PMJul 27, 09:12 PMJul 27, 09:16 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T21:02:34.327Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:02:55.684Z | 35.5% | 99.5% | +64.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:03:30.839Z | 43.5% | 99.5% | +56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:04:30.853Z | 14.5% | 43.5% | +29.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:04:35.159Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:04:40.817Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:04:59.034Z | 14.5% | 99.8% | +85.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:05:30.746Z | 14.5% | 99.8% | +85.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:06:30.944Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:06:38.879Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:06:59.476Z | 14.5% | 99.7% | +85.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:07:33.817Z | 14.5% | 99.7% | +85.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:08:33.254Z | 15.5% | 16.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:08:44.486Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:08:55.834Z | 16.5% | 100.0% | +83.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:09:32.510Z | 15.5% | 100.0% | +84.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:10:30.742Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:10:39.184Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:11:01.861Z | 13.5% | 100.0% | +86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:11:02.077Z | 13.5% | 100.0% | +86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:11:30.732Z | 13.5% | 100.0% | +86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:12:30.807Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:12:39.020Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:12:56.377Z | 13.5% | 100.0% | +86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:13:30.753Z | 13.5% | 100.0% | +86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:14:30.854Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:14:35.642Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:14:58.084Z | 13.5% | 100.0% | +86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:15:31.061Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:16:34.406Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 96.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.1%. Marx fair UP is 99.4%.