Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +31.90 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.9% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY85.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+31.90 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN90.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 14.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 27, 07:18 PMJul 27, 07:22 PMJul 27, 07:26 PMJul 27, 07:30 PMJul 27, 07:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-27T19:18:59.572Z52.5%99.8%+47.3 pp
2026-07-27T19:20:59.625Z66.5%99.8%+33.3 pp
2026-07-27T19:25:11.071Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-07-27T19:33:27.972Z14.5%14.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-27T19:34:30.958Z100.0%14.5%-85.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 85.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 31.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.9%, gross edge 35.0%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 31.9%. Marx fair UP is 85.0%.