VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +31.90 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 14.5%
Jul 27, 07:16 PMJul 27, 07:21 PMJul 27, 07:25 PMJul 27, 07:30 PMJul 27, 07:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T19:20:39.731Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:20:59.625Z | 66.5% | 99.8% | +33.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:21:30.760Z | 78.5% | 99.8% | +21.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:22:33.817Z | 78.5% | 48.5% | -30.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:22:34.560Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:22:39.693Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:22:59.030Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:23:38.350Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:24:30.817Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:24:37.189Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:25:11.071Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:25:30.826Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:26:30.709Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:26:43.907Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:26:59.764Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:27:32.148Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:28:30.768Z | 14.5% | 48.5% | +34.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:28:38.881Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:28:44.507Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:28:57.017Z | 14.5% | 100.0% | +85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:29:30.783Z | 14.5% | 100.0% | +85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:30:30.905Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:30:39.502Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:31:01.106Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:31:30.749Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:32:30.812Z | 14.5% | 99.5% | +85.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:32:33.905Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:33:27.972Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:33:30.835Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T19:34:30.958Z | 100.0% | 14.5% | -85.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 85.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 31.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.9%, gross edge 35.0%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 31.9%. Marx fair UP is 85.0%.