VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.66 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+6.66 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 28, 02:47 PMJul 28, 02:50 PMJul 28, 02:54 PMJul 28, 02:58 PMJul 28, 03:02 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T14:47:03.028Z	47.5%	0.0%	-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:49:03.089Z	47.5%	0.0%	-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:55:02.623Z	94.5%	0.0%	-94.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:58:39.427Z	94.5%	94.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:59:01.447Z	94.5%	0.0%	-94.5 pp
2026-07-28T14:59:30.888Z	99.5%	0.0%	-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:02:35.545Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 59.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.7%. Marx fair UP is 58.9%.