Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +11.15 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY64.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+11.15 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 90.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 28, 03:49 AMJul 28, 03:49 AMJul 28, 03:49 AMJul 28, 03:49 AMJul 28, 03:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T03:49:35.114Z100.0%90.0%-10.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 64.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 11.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 12.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 10.2%. Marx fair UP is 63.5%.