VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +11.15 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 90.0%
Jul 28, 03:31 AMJul 28, 03:36 AMJul 28, 03:40 AMJul 28, 03:45 AMJul 28, 03:49 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T03:31:30.920Z | 40.5% | 81.5% | +41.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:32:30.943Z | 40.5% | 81.5% | +41.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:33:32.291Z | 60.5% | 81.5% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:34:30.900Z | 66.5% | 81.5% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:35:30.930Z | 59.5% | 81.5% | +22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:36:30.797Z | 59.5% | 81.5% | +22.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:37:48.368Z | 60.5% | 81.5% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:38:54.330Z | 81.5% | 81.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:39:30.975Z | 81.5% | 81.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:39:34.952Z | 81.5% | 81.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:40:00.414Z | 81.5% | 0.0% | -81.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:40:30.829Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:41:30.871Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:42:30.814Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:43:30.780Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:44:30.817Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:45:30.801Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:47:36.075Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:49:35.114Z | 100.0% | 90.0% | -10.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 64.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 11.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 12.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 10.2%. Marx fair UP is 63.5%.