Bitcoin Up or Down on October 2?
Ends: Oct 2, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 2, 2026, 16:19 UTCResult: UPResolved: Oct 2, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01T04:57:02.194Z | 50.0% | 68.9% | +18.9 pp |
| 2026-10-01T09:54:14.842Z | 50.0% | 68.9% | +18.9 pp |
| 2026-10-01T18:49:12.238Z | 50.0% | 68.9% | +18.9 pp |
| 2026-10-01T20:55:51.752Z | 50.0% | 61.0% | +11.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T03:59:49.541Z | 50.0% | 87.9% | +37.9 pp |
| 2026-10-02T04:53:13.497Z | 50.0% | 98.6% | +48.6 pp |
| 2026-10-02T08:59:37.811Z | 50.0% | 99.0% | +49.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T09:57:38.523Z | 50.0% | 99.6% | +49.6 pp |
| 2026-10-02T10:40:48.802Z | 50.0% | 99.8% | +49.8 pp |
| 2026-10-02T12:26:43.189Z | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T15:28:13.097Z | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T15:28:17.300Z | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T15:32:00.211Z | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T15:44:16.072Z | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T15:58:24.081Z | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T16:04:50.739Z | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02, 04:04 PM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 03:58 PM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 03:44 PM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 03:32 PM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 03:28 PM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 03:28 PM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 12:26 PM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 10:40 AM | 50.0% | 99.8% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.