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Crypto · POLYMARKET · CLOSED

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 2?

Ends: Oct 2, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 2, 2026, 16:19 UTCResult: UPResolved: Oct 2, 2026, 16:14 UTC

VERDICTNO PUBLISHED ANALYSIS

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET UP 98.9%MARX FAIR UP 100.0%
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%25%50%75%100%
Oct 01, 04:57 AMOct 01, 01:43 PMOct 01, 10:30 PMOct 02, 07:17 AMOct 02, 04:04 PM UTC

UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-10-02T11:05:05.111Z93.0%99.7%+6.7 pp
2026-10-02T11:19:52.793Z93.5%99.9%+6.4 pp
2026-10-02T11:27:29.269Z93.5%99.9%+6.4 pp
2026-10-02T11:34:50.134Z93.5%99.9%+6.4 pp
2026-10-02T11:53:04.826Z93.5%99.9%+6.4 pp
2026-10-02T11:56:41.644Z93.5%100.0%+6.5 pp
2026-10-02T12:14:46.337Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-10-02T12:26:43.189Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-10-02T12:31:52.782Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-10-02T12:36:50.818Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-10-02T12:38:19.367Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-10-02T12:42:17.837Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-10-02T13:28:46.185Z98.6%100.0%+1.4 pp
2026-10-02T13:28:54.630Z98.6%100.0%+1.4 pp
2026-10-02T13:38:55.404Z98.6%100.0%+1.4 pp
2026-10-02T13:42:27.263Z98.6%100.0%+1.4 pp
2026-10-02T13:52:53.725Z98.6%100.0%+1.4 pp
2026-10-02T13:56:46.892Z98.6%100.0%+1.4 pp
2026-10-02T14:34:31.770Z96.9%100.0%+3.1 pp
2026-10-02T14:37:42.796Z96.9%100.0%+3.1 pp
2026-10-02T14:41:54.711Z96.9%100.0%+3.1 pp
2026-10-02T14:42:58.220Z96.9%100.0%+3.1 pp
2026-10-02T14:43:21.583Z96.9%100.0%+3.1 pp
2026-10-02T15:28:13.097Z98.9%100.0%+1.1 pp
2026-10-02T15:28:17.300Z98.9%100.0%+1.1 pp
2026-10-02T15:32:00.211Z98.9%100.0%+1.1 pp
2026-10-02T15:44:16.072Z98.9%100.0%+1.1 pp
2026-10-02T15:47:24.630Z98.9%100.0%+1.1 pp
2026-10-02T15:58:24.081Z98.9%100.0%+1.1 pp
2026-10-02T16:04:50.739Z98.9%100.0%+1.1 pp

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

FORECAST HISTORY

TimePMFAIREDGESIGNAL
Oct 02, 04:04 PM98.9%100.0%+1.1 ppNO EDGE
Oct 02, 03:58 PM98.9%100.0%+1.1 ppNO EDGE
Oct 02, 03:44 PM98.9%100.0%+1.1 ppNO EDGE
Oct 02, 03:32 PM98.9%100.0%+1.1 ppNO EDGE
Oct 02, 03:28 PM98.9%100.0%+1.1 ppNO EDGE
Oct 02, 03:28 PM98.9%100.0%+1.1 ppNO EDGE
Oct 02, 02:43 PM96.9%100.0%+3.1 ppBUY UP
Oct 02, 02:42 PM96.9%100.0%+3.1 ppBUY UP

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETWHY NO ANALYSISSTRATEGY