Bitcoin Up or Down on October 2?
Ends: Oct 2, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 2, 2026, 09:39 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02T04:53:13.497Z | 89.5% | 98.6% | +9.1 pp |
| 2026-10-02T05:16:52.735Z | 89.5% | 98.0% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-10-02T05:19:55.033Z | 89.5% | 98.0% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-10-02T05:24:27.698Z | 89.5% | 97.8% | +8.3 pp |
| 2026-10-02T05:29:32.106Z | 89.5% | 97.2% | +7.7 pp |
| 2026-10-02T05:34:45.994Z | 89.5% | 97.5% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T05:34:58.637Z | 89.5% | 97.5% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-10-02T06:10:05.274Z | 89.5% | 95.8% | +6.3 pp |
| 2026-10-02T06:18:19.060Z | 89.5% | 95.6% | +6.1 pp |
| 2026-10-02T06:25:26.813Z | 89.5% | 95.7% | +6.2 pp |
| 2026-10-02T06:25:40.869Z | 89.5% | 95.7% | +6.2 pp |
| 2026-10-02T06:34:01.134Z | 89.5% | 95.7% | +6.2 pp |
| 2026-10-02T06:54:35.794Z | 89.5% | 95.9% | +6.4 pp |
| 2026-10-02T07:21:55.907Z | 89.5% | 96.2% | +6.7 pp |
| 2026-10-02T07:25:22.632Z | 89.5% | 96.1% | +6.6 pp |
| 2026-10-02T07:34:38.336Z | 93.5% | 95.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-10-02T07:39:44.810Z | 93.5% | 95.6% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-10-02T07:39:52.473Z | 93.5% | 95.6% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-10-02T07:45:41.282Z | 93.5% | 94.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-10-02T07:51:42.368Z | 93.5% | 95.6% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-10-02T07:51:51.066Z | 93.5% | 95.6% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-10-02T07:55:54.652Z | 93.5% | 96.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-10-02T08:22:26.928Z | 93.5% | 97.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-10-02T08:26:06.479Z | 93.5% | 99.0% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-10-02T08:35:11.433Z | 93.5% | 99.0% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-10-02T08:41:04.292Z | 93.5% | 99.1% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-10-02T08:59:37.811Z | 93.5% | 99.0% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-10-02T09:20:21.010Z | 93.5% | 98.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-10-02T09:26:11.654Z | 93.5% | 98.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-10-02T09:39:33.936Z | 93.5% | 98.9% | +5.4 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02, 09:26 AM | 89.5% | 98.9% | +9.4 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 09:20 AM | 89.5% | 98.8% | +9.3 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 08:59 AM | 89.5% | 99.0% | +9.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 08:41 AM | 89.5% | 99.1% | +9.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 08:35 AM | 89.5% | 99.0% | +9.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 08:26 AM | 89.5% | 99.0% | +9.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 08:22 AM | 89.5% | 97.2% | +7.7 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 02, 07:55 AM | 89.5% | 96.2% | +6.7 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.