Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?
Ends: Aug 12, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 12, 2026, 05:16 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12T03:10:37.874Z | 62.5% | 63.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:11:12.706Z | 62.5% | 63.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:19:34.646Z | 62.5% | 61.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:25:46.589Z | 62.5% | 61.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:31:39.161Z | 62.5% | 61.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:35:47.223Z | 62.5% | 64.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:39:34.772Z | 62.5% | 67.4% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:41:53.955Z | 62.5% | 67.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:51:40.006Z | 64.0% | 65.4% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:53:34.975Z | 64.0% | 65.3% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:55:52.604Z | 64.0% | 64.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:04:39.868Z | 64.0% | 67.5% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:08:34.039Z | 64.0% | 67.5% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:13:54.126Z | 64.0% | 64.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:16:47.345Z | 64.0% | 64.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:18:34.907Z | 64.0% | 65.1% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:20:36.681Z | 64.0% | 65.7% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:24:45.531Z | 64.0% | 70.4% | +6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:26:41.939Z | 64.0% | 69.1% | +5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:33:54.486Z | 64.0% | 62.8% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:34:41.820Z | 64.0% | 61.8% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:40:40.424Z | 64.0% | 62.2% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:43:54.913Z | 64.0% | 63.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:50:35.120Z | 64.5% | 66.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:52:35.577Z | 64.5% | 66.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:59:19.144Z | 64.5% | 66.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:03:44.241Z | 64.5% | 63.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:05:43.975Z | 64.5% | 62.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:11:00.182Z | 64.5% | 62.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:16:00.201Z | 64.5% | 62.3% | -2.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 05:11 AM | 64.0% | 62.3% | −1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 05:05 AM | 64.0% | 62.0% | −2.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 05:03 AM | 64.0% | 63.9% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 04:59 AM | 64.0% | 66.9% | +2.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 04:52 AM | 64.0% | 66.8% | +2.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 04:50 AM | 64.0% | 66.0% | +2.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 04:43 AM | 64.0% | 63.3% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 04:40 AM | 64.0% | 62.2% | −1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.