Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?
Ends: Aug 12, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 12, 2026, 05:16 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12T04:40:40.424Z | 61.5% | 62.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:43:52.327Z | 61.5% | 63.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:43:53.197Z | 61.5% | 63.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:43:54.913Z | 61.5% | 63.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:48:32.617Z | 64.5% | 64.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:48:57.710Z | 64.5% | 64.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:50:35.120Z | 64.5% | 66.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:50:35.750Z | 64.5% | 66.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:51:12.635Z | 64.5% | 66.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:52:13.342Z | 64.5% | 66.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:52:35.120Z | 64.5% | 66.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:52:35.577Z | 64.5% | 66.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:54:19.835Z | 65.5% | 66.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:56:12.906Z | 65.5% | 66.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:59:06.088Z | 63.5% | 66.9% | +3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:59:19.144Z | 63.5% | 66.9% | +3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:01:13.657Z | 65.0% | 64.1% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:01:35.461Z | 65.0% | 64.1% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:01:36.292Z | 65.0% | 64.1% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:03:44.241Z | 61.5% | 63.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:04:23.161Z | 61.5% | 63.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:05:13.468Z | 61.5% | 63.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:07:35.582Z | 61.5% | 61.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:08:12.591Z | 61.5% | 61.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:09:35.763Z | 63.0% | 62.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:10:12.767Z | 63.0% | 62.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:11:00.182Z | 63.0% | 62.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:13:27.386Z | 64.5% | 62.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:14:12.588Z | 64.5% | 62.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:16:00.201Z | 64.5% | 62.3% | -2.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 05:11 AM | 63.0% | 62.3% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 05:09 AM | 63.0% | 62.3% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 05:07 AM | 61.5% | 61.5% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 05:04 AM | 61.5% | 63.9% | +2.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 05:03 AM | 61.5% | 63.9% | +2.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 05:01 AM | 65.0% | 64.1% | −0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 05:01 AM | 65.0% | 64.1% | −0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 04:59 AM | 63.5% | 66.9% | +3.4 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.