Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?
Ends: Aug 12, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 12, 2026, 04:37 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12T02:33:35.341Z | 61.5% | 68.2% | +6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T02:37:41.480Z | 61.5% | 65.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T02:39:31.340Z | 61.5% | 64.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T02:40:25.211Z | 61.5% | 64.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T02:47:33.865Z | 61.5% | 62.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T02:49:31.289Z | 61.5% | 63.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T02:55:40.365Z | 61.5% | 63.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:00:25.127Z | 61.5% | 60.7% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:06:45.588Z | 61.5% | 64.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:10:37.874Z | 61.5% | 63.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:21:35.456Z | 61.5% | 60.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:25:46.589Z | 61.5% | 61.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:33:41.006Z | 61.5% | 64.4% | +2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:35:47.223Z | 61.5% | 64.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:37:40.090Z | 61.5% | 66.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:41:53.955Z | 61.5% | 67.3% | +5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:49:34.304Z | 61.5% | 66.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:53:34.975Z | 61.5% | 65.3% | +3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:55:49.148Z | 61.5% | 64.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:02:41.737Z | 61.5% | 67.9% | +6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:06:36.322Z | 61.5% | 67.9% | +6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:14:32.177Z | 61.5% | 66.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:16:48.269Z | 61.5% | 64.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:20:35.645Z | 61.5% | 65.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:22:36.875Z | 61.5% | 68.7% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:25:19.805Z | 61.5% | 70.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:30:42.171Z | 61.5% | 66.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:34:41.271Z | 61.5% | 61.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:36:39.697Z | 61.5% | 61.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:37:39.989Z | 61.5% | 61.9% | +0.4 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 04:36 AM | 52.5% | 61.9% | +9.4 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:34 AM | 52.5% | 61.8% | +9.3 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:30 AM | 52.5% | 66.8% | +14 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:25 AM | 52.5% | 70.4% | +18 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:22 AM | 52.5% | 68.7% | +16 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:20 AM | 52.5% | 65.7% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:16 AM | 52.5% | 64.6% | +12 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:14 AM | 52.5% | 66.0% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.