Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 09:06 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T06:04:40.707Z | 70.0% | 78.9% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:08:39.216Z | 70.0% | 77.7% | +7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:18:41.557Z | 70.0% | 76.6% | +6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:20:41.125Z | 70.0% | 76.7% | +6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:24:59.587Z | 70.0% | 77.7% | +7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:35:17.654Z | 78.5% | 75.9% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:41:48.710Z | 78.5% | 74.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:51:37.527Z | 78.5% | 76.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:55:40.918Z | 78.5% | 83.1% | +4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:03:13.526Z | 78.5% | 82.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:07:36.009Z | 78.5% | 82.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:11:44.658Z | 78.5% | 82.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:22:35.865Z | 78.5% | 81.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:29:15.599Z | 78.5% | 82.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:37:50.534Z | 81.5% | 83.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:39:35.035Z | 81.5% | 83.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:48:30.326Z | 81.5% | 81.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:55:38.884Z | 81.5% | 81.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:04:13.628Z | 81.5% | 84.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:06:35.409Z | 81.5% | 84.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:11:28.054Z | 81.5% | 82.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:17:45.209Z | 81.5% | 80.3% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:21:43.623Z | 81.5% | 79.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:31:21.301Z | 81.5% | 77.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:38:37.408Z | 75.5% | 78.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:48:07.368Z | 75.5% | 77.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:51:39.902Z | 75.5% | 78.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:55:18.496Z | 75.5% | 75.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T09:03:19.060Z | 75.5% | 77.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T09:06:00.168Z | 75.5% | 77.3% | +1.8 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 09:03 AM | 81.5% | 77.3% | −4.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 08:55 AM | 81.5% | 75.9% | −5.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 08:51 AM | 81.5% | 78.3% | −3.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 08:48 AM | 81.5% | 77.2% | −4.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 08:38 AM | 81.5% | 78.3% | −3.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 08:31 AM | 81.5% | 77.7% | −3.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 08:21 AM | 81.5% | 79.2% | −2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 08:17 AM | 81.5% | 80.3% | −1.2 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.