Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 09:06 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T08:27:13.890Z | 79.5% | 78.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:29:41.843Z | 79.5% | 77.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:31:21.301Z | 79.5% | 77.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:33:41.846Z | 79.5% | 78.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:34:46.794Z | 79.5% | 77.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:35:40.887Z | 79.5% | 77.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:38:37.408Z | 79.5% | 78.3% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:39:48.769Z | 79.5% | 78.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:40:43.592Z | 79.5% | 78.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:43:06.722Z | 79.5% | 78.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:46:39.975Z | 79.5% | 77.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:48:07.368Z | 79.5% | 77.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:49:12.628Z | 79.5% | 77.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:50:39.521Z | 77.5% | 78.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:51:12.584Z | 77.5% | 78.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:51:39.902Z | 77.5% | 78.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:52:13.512Z | 77.5% | 77.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:52:34.111Z | 77.5% | 77.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:53:12.578Z | 76.5% | 77.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:54:32.206Z | 75.5% | 75.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:55:12.724Z | 75.5% | 75.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:55:18.496Z | 75.5% | 75.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:56:12.791Z | 75.5% | 76.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:56:52.951Z | 75.5% | 76.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:56:56.961Z | 75.5% | 76.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:57:13.325Z | 75.5% | 76.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:58:17.768Z | 77.5% | 76.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T09:01:30.973Z | 75.5% | 77.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T09:03:19.060Z | 75.5% | 77.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T09:06:05.310Z | 75.5% | 77.3% | +1.8 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 09:03 AM | 75.5% | 77.3% | +1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 08:56 AM | 75.5% | 76.2% | +0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 08:56 AM | 75.5% | 76.2% | +0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 08:55 AM | 75.5% | 75.9% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 08:54 AM | 75.5% | 75.9% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 08:52 AM | 77.5% | 77.2% | −0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 08:51 AM | 77.5% | 78.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 08:50 AM | 77.5% | 78.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.