Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 08:17 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T05:11:46.566Z | 62.5% | 77.5% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T05:17:39.675Z | 62.5% | 85.5% | +23.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T05:23:35.792Z | 62.5% | 81.4% | +18.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T05:29:36.049Z | 62.5% | 83.3% | +20.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T05:35:39.423Z | 62.5% | 81.6% | +19.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T05:39:35.536Z | 62.5% | 82.4% | +19.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T05:44:40.134Z | 62.5% | 82.2% | +19.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T05:52:37.229Z | 62.5% | 80.6% | +18.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:04:40.264Z | 81.5% | 78.9% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:06:41.816Z | 81.5% | 76.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:10:41.417Z | 81.5% | 77.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:18:42.569Z | 81.5% | 76.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:20:41.125Z | 81.5% | 76.7% | -4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:24:59.587Z | 81.5% | 77.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:37:39.819Z | 81.5% | 75.2% | -6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:41:48.710Z | 81.5% | 74.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:51:37.527Z | 81.5% | 76.3% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T06:55:40.918Z | 81.5% | 83.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:05:39.435Z | 81.5% | 81.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:11:44.658Z | 81.5% | 82.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:22:35.865Z | 81.5% | 81.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:24:44.568Z | 81.5% | 83.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:37:49.537Z | 81.5% | 83.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:39:35.035Z | 81.5% | 83.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:41:55.944Z | 81.5% | 82.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T07:53:34.792Z | 81.5% | 81.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:04:35.573Z | 81.5% | 85.1% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:08:40.002Z | 81.5% | 84.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:15:25.538Z | 81.5% | 82.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T08:17:35.154Z | 81.5% | 82.9% | +1.4 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 08:15 AM | 62.5% | 82.9% | +20 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 08:08 AM | 62.5% | 84.8% | +22 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 08:04 AM | 62.5% | 85.1% | +23 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 07:53 AM | 62.5% | 81.4% | +19 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 07:41 AM | 62.5% | 82.8% | +20 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 07:39 AM | 62.5% | 83.2% | +21 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 07:37 AM | 62.5% | 83.4% | +21 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 07:24 AM | 62.5% | 83.3% | +21 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.