Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 05:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 09:52 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12T19:58:20.515Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-14T23:59:06.625Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T08:57:10.983Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T11:59:30.584Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:56:59.763Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T01:57:48.553Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T08:53:15.104Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T15:56:18.942Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T22:56:28.973Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T05:59:11.566Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T12:54:23.739Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T19:55:34.943Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T02:58:20.039Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:52:07.315Z | 1.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.