Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 05:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 09:52 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17T03:55:30.440Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T04:57:16.341Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T05:55:51.090Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T06:55:44.764Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T07:52:04.185Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T08:54:06.076Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T09:37:39.926Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T10:40:04.230Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T11:43:51.976Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T12:44:54.418Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T13:50:35.881Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T14:54:27.012Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T15:56:30.854Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T16:58:44.301Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T18:03:58.340Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T19:05:26.082Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T20:10:00.577Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T21:12:38.454Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T22:15:30.480Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:21:28.790Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:22:13.181Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T01:32:52.518Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T02:36:22.964Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T03:37:48.087Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T04:37:36.929Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T05:44:37.898Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T06:47:16.440Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T07:46:37.482Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T08:51:11.866Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:52:07.315Z | 1.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.